NK's total fertility rate estimated at 1.38, far lower than UN estimate: BOK report

A kindergarten in Pyongyang is seen in this May 7, 2019 file photo. Yonhap

North Korea's total fertility rate is presumed to have been far lower than a U.N. estimate amid a delay in marriages and women's increased economic activities, a report from South Korea's central bank showed Friday.

North Korea's total fertility rate — the average number of children that are expected to be born to a woman over her lifetime — is estimated to have reached 1.38 in the 2010s, down from 1.59 in the 2000s and 1.91 from the 1990s, according to the report by the Economic Research Institute at the Bank of Korea (BOK).

The report was written based on a survey on North Korean defectors who escaped the repressive regime in the years before 2019. A BOK team asked questions about experiences of marriages and child births of their 1,137 relatives and friends in North Korea.

The BOK's projected figure is far lower than the U.N. population fund's estimate of 1.8 for 2023. It is much lower than the replacement level of 2.1 that would keep North Korea's population stable at 26 million.

"A country's birthrate tends to fall when income levels rise. But even though North Korea is a low-income country, its total fertility rate unusually remains very low," the report said.

It cited a delay in marriages in North Korea and an increased number of women engaged in economic activities at market places as the main reasons for the fall in the birthrate. Growing individualism that emerged in Pyongyang and other cities is also attributable to the decline.

Accordingly, North Korea's working-age population, or people aged 15 to 64, is forecast to decline from 2021-2030 and the country's total population could fall, the report said.

In light of this demographic situation, it would be difficult to expect that a potential unification of the two Koreas could slow the pace of a sharp fall in South Korea's working-age population or the South's rapid aging, it added.

Earlier this month, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for measures to prevent a fall in the country's birthrate in the first national meeting of mothers in 11 years.

Seoul's unification ministry said Kim publicly mentioned a decline in the birthrate for the first time, an indication that the nation is grappling with the issue. (Yonhap)